The New Silk Roads: The New Asia and the Remaking of the World Order by Peter Frankopan

Prof. Peter Frankopan is Professor of Global History at Oxford University, where is Director of the Oxford Centre for Byzantine Research. He is UNESCO Professor of Silk Roads Studies at King's College, Cambridge.

The book "is a detailed snapshot of contemporary affairs, but through a wide lens, in the hope of providing context for what is going on around the world, and also to highlight some of the themes on which all our lives and livelihood depend."

The author states that: "We are living through a transformation and a shift that is epochal in its scale and character,"

"Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together", President Xi told President Putin. The Russian President responded: "I agree".

"The shift of global GDP from the developed economies of the West to those of the East has been breathtaking in both scale and speed."

"What is striking, however, are the reactions to change in East and West. In one, there is hope and optimism about what tomorrow will bring, while in the other anxiety that is so acute that countries are more and more divided..."

"In today’s world, while we think what matters is what goes on in Washington, London and Brussels, a new world is taking shape—a world that is changing quickly, a world that is commercially vibrant, a world that is being galvanised not only by enormous investment but by the shared belief that tomorrow will be better than today."

Asian century, with a 'but'

"We are living in the Asian century already, a time when the movement of global gross domestic product (GDP) from the developed economies of the West to those of the East is taking place on an astonishing scale—and at astonishing speed. Some projections anticipate that by 2050 the per capita income in Asia could rise sixfold in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, making 3 billion additional Asians affluent by current standards. "

"The rising wealth in the East is eye-opening in its scale. "

"Corporate fortunes and failures will be made in the East—and not in the West."

"But the success of new businesses should not mask the fact that in most sectors and most industries, the West still leads the way. "

However, "Life was becoming more difficult and more challenging for the West..."

The New Silk Road: Belt Road Initiative(BRI)

"In the words of one commentator, assessing the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative is “part art, part science” because “it is a moving target, loosely defined and ever expanding,” to the point that it is no longer “constrained by geography or even by gravity,” as the vision has expanded since 2013 to include Africa, Europe, the Arctic, cyberspace and even outer space.”"

"Silk Roads as a catch-all for closer cooperation".

It is also "breathtakingly ambiguous". I would add it is breathtakingly ambitious as well as breathtakingly audacious.

This includes a "new line that will span Laos, costing $5.8bn, which will supposedly turn the landlocked country into one that is 'land-linked.'"

"Multibillion-dollar loans for motorways, bridges, power plants and deep-water ports have been approved in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, with major projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand also under way. Projects are not limited to Asia, as the $8.7bn railway from Mombasa to the Ugandan border, Kenya’s biggest infrastructure project since independence from Britain in 1963, shows."

"New agreements seem to be put in place every day. In June 2018 alone, ten deals were signed off by the Nepalese and Chinese governments for projects ranging from energy and transport to a proposal to build a tunnel under the Himalayas to link Kathmandu with Tibet and beyond."

"Overland routes, including those that go via Gwadar, are quicker than shipping by sea, but it is hard to see many goods for which the benefit of speed will be decisive. "

The new Silk Road will open alternate route instead of via the crowded and geopolitically sensitive South China Sea. The new route is not just faster speed but an alternative route giving both capacity as well as geopolitical advantage.

It also enables supply of energy from vast reserves in Central Asia.

"Particular attention has been paid to natural resources, especially relating to energy, where the country’s demands are expected to treble by 2030. Pipelines that enable gas and oil to be pumped from Central Asia and Russia to China have therefore been one focus, but so too have commercial agreements that guarantee large-scale shipments—such as those with oil companies in Russia and the Middle East, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE."

"Pressures on agricultural production as a result of a rapid urbanisation have also encouraged Chinese companies to look outside the country to ensure future food supplies by buying farms, farmland and food producers in Asia, Africa, Australia and elsewhere at a time when the spending powers of the middle classes are rising and eating habits are changing quickly as a result. "

The new Silk Road is an alternative route, and a faster route, with geopolitical advantages. It helps China transport goods, but also secures it energy supplies from Central Asia and Middle East, as well as food from Central Asia.

"Chinese companies have acquired shipping terminals in Spain, Italy and Belgium, either in full or in part".

"It is a similar story in the Caribbean and Central and South America, where China has played a major role in an array of projects, again mainly involving infrastructure but also energy."

"In other words, the Silk Roads are everywhere—not just in Central Asia, but across all of Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. "

Debt Trap

Luring small countries into a debt trap is a (unfair?)criticism of The New Silk Road.

"Perhaps the most striking example comes with the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka, which defaulted on its repayments almost immediately, leaving the Sri Lankan government with few options regarding redress.

The solution, a ninety-nine-year lease to a Chinese company, struck many commentators as an obvious example of a new form of colonialism—and reminded historians of the way that the British had ended up in control of ports like Hong Kong in the nineteenth century."

"The money being offered by Beijing is rarely given as grant, and usually is not offered at a highly competitive rate. From this perspective, therefore, the Belt and Road Initiative looks more like a financial scheme designed to reward shareholders (and the state) than a philanthropic scheme to improve the quality of life in neighbouring countries and breathe new life into the Silk Roads."

"The $7bn cost of the railway line being built to link Kunming with Vientiane represents more than 60 per cent of the GDP of Laos, leading to warnings that the level of debt is so heavy as to be all but unserviceable".

"As of 31 December 2017, said an editorial in Expansao, if the debt was averaged out between the whole population, Angolians effectively owed China $754 each—a considerable sum in a country where annual per capita income is only $6,200." It is an even starker story in Kyrgyzstan, where the state debt is the equivalent of $703 per citizen (as against barely $1,000 annual per capita income)."

"Chinese officials themselves recognise that 80 per cent of the money ploughed into Pakistan, half that invested into Myanmar and a full third that is expended in Central Asia will probably be lost."

"Harvard’s Joseph Nye wondered, before suggesting that Chinese motivations revolve less around helping raise standards of living in China or in neighbouring countries and more around the desire to find investments that produce better returns than low-yield US government bonds—of which Beijing owns more than $1 trillion".

Prof. Kishore Mahbubani says: "The use of economic means to pressure smaller countries is normal great power behaviour".

China is no different from those before it, so far, and maybe even better because it helps them develop infrastructure instead of waging war or propping tyrannical dictator regimes.

Only game in town

The new Silk Road is the only game in town for some.

"Or there is Kazakhstan, where the country’s all-powerful first president Nursultan Nazarbayev has compared China favourably with the west, stating that the former does not dictate terms, does not demand the adoption of foreign values and is a much more attractive partner".

"prime minister of Cambodia, Hun Sen, put it when asked about the Belt and Road Initiative a few months earlier, “Other countries have lots of ideas but no money. But for China, when it comes with an idea, it also comes with the money."

"Senior figures in the US have recognised this issue. "

"In a fast-changing world, being slow off the mark does not just mean being at a disadvantage; it means showing a lack of initiative—and a lack of leadership.

This was what General Waldhauser was pleading for when talking about Africa. All the leaders of the states in Africa he had met “want US involvement. They all want US leadership. And it doesn’t have to be large. It doesn’t have to be grand. But they want to know that they have our support. They want to have our leadership. And they want to have a relationship with us. They really do."

"General Stephen ‘Townsend, in nomination hearings in the Senate for his appointment to command AFRICOM that oversees US operations in Africa. “Africa will be shaped by the increased presence of external actors over the next decade,” said the general. “Russia and China are increasingly active using economic and military means to expand their access and influence across Africa,” he noted, adding that forming policies that recognise and respond to these challenges is essential as they are to the “detriment” of the United States own interests.'”

Chinese business and business leaders, like Jack Ma of Alibaba who took a delegation that reputedly included sixteen billionaires around East Africa, have been busy investing in new trading platforms, in manufacturing and in real estate projects like the massive ‘Friendship City’ in the Athi river area of Nairobi in Kenya.” While this happens, US trade with Africa has been locked in a pattern of decline and falling engagement."

"Being slow off the mark also means having to deal with fait accomplis, which are difficult if not impossible to reverse. Failure to stop China’s expansion in the South China Sea, meant that the US was effectively dealing with “the Crimea of the East”".

China's five No's approach

"China follows a “five-no” approach:

No interference in African countries internal affairs

No imposition of our will on African countries

No attachment of political strings to assistance to Africa

No seeking of selfish political gains in investment and financing cooperation with Africa.

US response

"For Washington, the options are either unrealistic, unavailable or unpalatable."

"Part of this must stem from a brain drain and systemic failure in Washington. The decision to cut the budget of the State Department has reduced expertise and empathy. "

"For the moment, at least, much of Washington’s energy is going into criticising China, its methods and its plans."

There is eroding of soft power as well: "The revelations that children had been split from their parents, had in some cases been forcibly injected with drugs that left them unable to walk, afraid of people and desperate to sleep, did enormous damage to the US abroad—as did the fact that DNA tests had to be used in some cases to reunite families with young children.”

Such scenes are all but unbelievable in a country that has long been regarded as a beacon of hope, a bastion of decency and the defender of freedom and justice."

"US administration that seeks to reshape the world to its own interests, using the stick rather than the carrot, and a Chinese government that talks of mutual benefits, of enhancing cooperation and of using incentives to weave together peoples, countries and cultures in a “win-win” scenario—while at the same time raising fears for many of an empire being built by design or by default."

India

"In the case of the new, emerging world, and in particular with a rising China, the US has decided to bet the house on India. "

"“It is our policy,” stated one senior official, “to ensure that India... does become over time a more influential player” in the “Indo-Pacific region.” This aim was explicitly linked to America’s idealised vision of global affairs. “It is in our interest, the US interest, as well as the interest of the region, that India plays an increasingly weighty role in the region."

"The problem here is that while India seems a perfect partner for the US in Asia, it is by no means clear that the Indian government feels the same way.

For one thing, there are close ties to Russia, which has been careful to court Prime Minister Modi at every opportunity—to good effect, to judge from the announcement of a slew of agreements ranging from the sale of military hardware to nuclear reactors in Goa in October 2016.

Russia is “an old friend of India,” said Modi—which, he added, is better than two new friends."

"The Chief of Army Staff of the Indian Army answered bluntly when asked about weapons procurement from Rus sia and the possible steps the US might take against India and its military as a result. We appreciate, he said, that the United States could impose “sanctions on us, but we follow an independent policy."

"Those whom the US think of as natural allies guard their independence warily—and may behave more quixotically than might be expected in Washington."

"And yet, despite its rivalry with China, India is reluctant to be unnecessarily antagonistic towards its powerful neighbour, seeking to develop a constructive narrative rather than sharpen antagonisms for the sake of it. In India’s case, moreover, there are obvious advantages in trying to keep relations with China—and indeed with other countries—as pragmatic as possible. "

As an example of this co-operation, "China had agreed to provide hydrological data on the Brahmaputra River in flood season to India—a step that is helpful both to predict floodwaters and to be able to anticipate shortages well in advance. "

USA might want to use India against China, as they used Pakistan against Afghanistan. Will it work? Has it worked?

Europe

Sigmar Gabriel, the German foreign minister said "China currently seems to be the only country in the world with any sort of genuinely global, geostrategic concept,".

"The problem, said Gabriel, was that Europe and the West had no coherent ideas, no plans, no response and, seemingly, no ideas. “What we can blame ourselves for,” he said, “is the fact that we, as the ‘West,’ do not have our own strategy for finding a new balance between worldwide interests, one that is based on conciliation and common added value and not on the zero-sum game that is the unilateral pursuit of interests."

"General Sir Nick Carter, chief of the defence staff in the British Army said “What constitutes a weapon,” he warned, “no longer has to go ‘bang.’” And in this new era, it was a matter of fact that “our state-based competitors have become masters at exploiting the seams between peace and war."

Is China Expansionist?

The question 'Is China Expansionist?' is better answered by Prof. Kishore Mahbubani. He says:

"As China becomes more and more powerful, it will flex its muscles and use them more. This is normal great power behaviour. Indeed, the term “benevolent great power” is an oxymoron. No great power is altruistic. All great powers will pursue their national interests. So will China. However, while the goals of all great powers are similar, the methods might differ. China has become and will become more assertive. Yet it need not become more aggressive. These two words “assertive” and “aggressive” are often confused with each other. A study of the great power behaviour of America and China will illustrate the differences."

"The big question here therefore is thus; why has China refrained from using its military in recent decades? What are the deeper roots of this pattern of behavior. Henry Kissinger has explained well why the Chinese avoid military options. He says, “[The] foundations [of China’s distinctive military theory] were laid during a period of upheaval, when ruthless struggles between rival kingdoms decimated China’s population. Reacting to this slaughter (and seeking to emerge victorious from it), Chinese thinkers developed strategic thought that placed a premium on victory through psychological advantage and preached the avoidance of direct conflict.”"

"Confucius cautions against people who only have the strength of soldiers. In one dialogue, Zilu said, “Does the junzi prize valor?” The Master said, “The junzi gives righteousness the topmost place. If a junzi had valor but not righteousness, he would create chaos. If a small person has valor and not righteousness, he becomes a bandit.” In another dialogue, Zilu said, “Master, if you were put in charge of the three army divisions, then whom would you wish to have with you?” The Master said, “Those who fight tigers with their bare hands, wade across rivers, and are willing to die without regret—I would not want their company. I would certainly want those who approach affairs with fearful caution and who like to lay careful plans for success.”"

"While there is no question that China has restrained itself from militarily “aggressive” behaviour, it is also clear that China has become more “assertive” as it emerges as a new great power, using non-military means to project its power. "

"The use of economic means to pressure smaller countries is normal great power behaviour. "

"A world where pointed words replace bullets is a safer world."

"The real competition between America and China will be in the economic and social fields. The main reason why America successfully defeated the mighty Soviet Union without fighting a war with it is that the American economy outperformed the Soviet economy."

"Given the psychological reality of this yellow peril undercurrent, American people need to question how much their reactions to China’s rise result from hard-headed rational analysis and how much is a result of deep discomfort with the success of a non-Caucasian civilization."

"Kennan’s emphasis on “spiritual vitality” is even more relevant in the ongoing geopolitical contest with China. It is this dimension that will determine the outcome of the contest against China, not the military dimension. Since China has the world’s oldest civilisation, the only civilisation to have recovered from four major shocks in its history, it would be a serious mistake for an American policymaker to underestimate the strength and resilience of Chinese civilisation in the peaceful contest that will take place between the two powers."


"China’s rise—combined with a clear-eyed understanding of what it wants and needs in the present and future—has also led to doors opening elsewhere..."

"Making alliances is an art, and a lengthy, slow process that brings long-term rewards. But building, maintaining and cultivating such relationships takes time and requires investment."

"Chinese president, Xi Jinping, talked about the need for nations to work with rather than against each other. “Our real enemy,” he said, “is not the neighbouring country; it is hunger, poverty, ignorance, superstition and prejudice.”

the richest 1 per cent of the world’s population own more wealth than the remaining 99 per cent . . . [while] for many families, to have warm houses, enough food and secure jobs is still a distant dream.”

Moreover, he concluded, "when encountering difficulties, we should not complain about ourselves, blame others, lose confidence or run away from responsibilities.

We should join hands and rise to the challenge. History is created by the brave. Let us boost confidence, take actions and march arm-in-arm toward a bright future.”

This epitomises the efforts by China to articulate a role of global leadership that is appealing to all".

"We are already living in the Asian century."

"the West is in danger of becoming less and less relevant. When the West does engage and play a role, it is invariably to intervene or interfere in ways that create more problems than they solve—or to place obstacles and restrictions in place that limit the growth and prospects of others.

The age of the West shaping the world in its image is long gone-although that seems to have been lost on those who think that managing the fates of others is appropriate and even possible."

"The King of Zhao in north-eastern China, who ruled nearly 2,500 years ago, declared that, “A talent for following the ways of yesterday is not sufficient to improve the world of today.”".









Tweet

Related articles

Has China Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy by Prof. Kishore Mahbubani

World Order by Henry Kissinger

External Links